Changes in precipitation extremes under greenhouse warming are commonly assumed to be constrained by the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship, implying an increase in extreme precipitation of 7% per degree of climate warming. An analysis of 99 years of observations along with simulations with a regional climate model show that short-duration precipitation extremes can instead increase in severity twice as fast, by 14% per degree of warming.
- Geert Lenderink
- Erik van Meijgaard