This paper presents an example of a percolation threshold for infectious disease, namely the plague among great gerbils in Central Asia. The threshold arises from the spatial constraints on flea dispersal movements that carry plague from one family group of great gerbils to another. These movements are small compared to the vast contiguous areas of desert that have been colonized by the great gerbil. The result is a percolation system wherein plague is only able to percolate through the landscape if it is sufficiently 'filled' with family groups of hosts.
- S. Davis
- P. Trapman
- J. A. P. Heesterbeek
