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In the version of this Article previously published, technical problems led to the wrong summary appearing on the homepage, and an incorrect Supplementary Information file being uploaded. Both errors have now been corrected.

It has been hoped that making abundant natural gas available by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) would reduce greenhouse gas emissions but now modelling shows that increased consumption will have limited effect on climate change.

Increasing climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century. Countries need to ratchet their 2030 pledges made in Glasgow to reduce temperature overshoot and consequently reduce the risks of irreversible and adverse consequences to natural and human systems.

Carbon dioxide removal will be essential to reaching ambitious climate goals by offsetting hard-to-abate emissions and drawing down legacy CO₂. A diverse portfolio of CO₂ removal strategies, rather than any single approach, could achieve gigatonne-scale removals while limiting risks to the water–energy–land system.

Many countries have submitted updated and new emissions reduction pledges in COP26, but further ratcheting of pledges is needed to reach the 1.5 °C goal. Ratcheting near-term ambition through 2030 could bring the largest climate benefits and avoid potential long-term temperature overshoot.

Stabilizing climate change requires simultaneous mitigation of all greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Here the authors examine 90 mitigation scenarios pairing different levels of CO₂ and non-CO₂ GHG abatement pathways to demonstrate the contributions of different GHGs towards 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals.

Assessments of emissions mitigation patterns have largely ignored differences in investment risk across technologies and regions. With a model accounting for such differences in the electricity generation sector, research now finds that mitigation costs are higher than with no risk variation, and highlights the importance of institutional reforms to lower investment risks.

Achieving the longer-term goals of the Paris Agreement and transformation to a low-carbon society requires an acceleration in electricity generation investment and capacity addition above that outlined in the US Nationally Determined Contribution.

To reduce emissions, countries have committed to nationally determined contributions (NDCs). However, countries are also committed to the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and this study looks at the synergies between meeting NDCs and SDGs.

Integrated assessment model-based scenarios are commonly used to project future emission pathways but suffer from submission biases and high computational cost. Here researchers develop a deep learning framework to generate synthetic scenarios and replicate key variables across a wide range of mitigation ambitions.

Depending on policy design, carbon dioxide removal could either perpetuate fossil fuel consumption and slow emission reductions or, if paired with rapid emission reductions, accelerate net-zero attainment and minimize overshoot periods. Policies that simultaneously and separately mandate emission reductions and near-term carbon dioxide removals could help to prevent mitigation deterrence, while supporting the upscaling of carbon dioxide removal.

Modeling shows that an expanded set of federal and state policies beyond current policies in the US could achieve economy-wide emissions reductions of 56-67% below 2005 levels by 2035.

Many countries are relying on land-based strategies to meet the climate targets set out in the Paris Agreement, putting pressure on land resources. Here the authors show a global reduction in cropland area under current climate pledges, with implications for trade and food security.

To eliminate transport emissions by 2050, low carbon fuels must rapidly replace fossil fuels. The authors model these technological transitions for each transport mode and evaluate economy-wide tradeoffs of varied levels of transport decarbonization.

A key strategy for meeting China’s 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here, the authors detail how to structure a high-ambition, plant-by-plant coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs.

Global future carbon removal efforts could largely be concentrated in Asia. Here, this study shows that multi-gigatonnes expectation of carbon removal could have adverse impact on the energy-land-water system of countries and regions within the continent.

Assumptions about the use of biomass and CO₂ sequestration drive key differences in how emissions from remaining fuels are mitigated in net-zero energy systems, with potentially significant tradeoffs that will need to be evaluated and managed.

This study demonstrates how land-based carbon removals and the market-mediated responses are sensitive to mitigation policy strength and scope, illustrating that, despite trade-offs, both forestation and BECCS are integral to cost-effective 2 °C pathways.

Wide-ranging estimates of the social cost of carbon limit its usefulness in setting carbon prices. Near-term to net zero is an alternative modelling approach that focuses on the prices, combined with other policies, needed to set an economy on a pathway consistent with a net-zero emissions target.

Climate action from local actors is vital in achieving nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement. Here the authors show that existing commitments from U.S. states, cities and business could reduce emissions 25% below 2005 levels by 2030, with expanded subnational action reducing emissions by 37% and federal action by up to 49%.

The plant-by-plant retirement needs are not well-understood yet to achieve the rapid transition away from coal use. Here the authors found that operational lifetimes of existing units must be reduced to approximately 35 years to keep warming well below 2 °C or 20 years for 1.5 °C, even if no new capacity comes online.

Negative emissions technologies are essential in scenarios for meeting Paris climate targets. Modelling results show that direct air capture could play an important role with less demand for land yet high energy and water use compared with BECCS and afforestation.

Although many countries have strengthened their emissions reduction pledges, their ability to limit the warming outcomes is still in question. A multimodel analysis demonstrates that these trajectories are in line with the 2 °C target but countries probably face feasibility challenges to achieve them.

There is a balance in mitigation pathway design between economic transition cost and physical climate threats. This study provides a comprehensive framework to assess the near- and long-term risks under various warming scenarios globally and in particular regions.

Results from four integrated assessment models show countries’ efforts to cut emissions fall towards the lower end of the social cost of carbon distribution, suggesting insufficient levels of ambition to meet the Paris Agreement goals.