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Showing 1–8 of 8 results
Advanced filters: Author: Ira M. Longini Clear advanced filters

  • Lack of knowledge of individual infection history hinders understanding of immunological interactions among DENV serotypes. Here, the authors introduce a framework to infer the relationship between unobserved infection history and subsequent infection and disease risk, and find complex dependencies.

    • Tim K. Tsang
    • Samson L. Ghebremariam
    • Yang Yang
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 10, P: 1-9

  • The 2015–2016 Zika virus outbreak in the Americas was characterised by high numbers of cases in women of reproductive age, but the extent to which this reflected surveillance bias is unclear. Here, the authors develop a statistical model which adjusts for surveillance bias and use it to estimate transmission risks in different groups using data from Colombia.

    • Tim K. Tsang
    • Diana P. Rojas
    • Yang Yang
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 16, P: 1-9

  • The growing need for realism in addressing complex public health questions calls for accurate models of the human contact patterns that govern disease transmission. Here, the authors generate effective population-level contact matrices by using highly detailed macro (census) and micro (survey) data on key socio-demographic features.

    • Dina Mistry
    • Maria Litvinova
    • Alessandro Vespignani
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 12, P: 1-12

  • Global COVID-19 vaccine distribution has been inequitable. In this mathematical modelling study, the authors estimate the proportion of deaths that could have been averted in twenty low- and lower-middle-income countries if vaccines had been more widely available early in the pandemic.

    • Nicolò Gozzi
    • Matteo Chinazzi
    • Alessandro Vespignani
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 14, P: 1-10

  • Modelling highlights international travel as the main driver of the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 to Europe and the USA, and suggests that introductions and local transmission may have begun in January 2020.

    • Jessica T. Davis
    • Matteo Chinazzi
    • Alessandro Vespignani
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature
    Volume: 600, P: 127-132

  • The US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub produced medium to long term projections based on different epidemic scenarios. In this study, the authors evaluate 14 rounds of projections by comparing them to the epidemic trajectories that occurred, and discuss lessons learned for future similar projects.

    • Emily Howerton
    • Lucie Contamin
    • Justin Lessler
    ResearchOpen Access
    Nature Communications
    Volume: 14, P: 1-15