The ‘predictive validity’ of decision tools such as disease models that are used in drug research and development (R&D) — the degree to which the output from a tool correlates with clinical utility in people — has a major influence on R&D productivity. This article explains this influence and discusses methods to evaluate and improve the predictive validity of decision tools, with the aim of supporting the application of more effective tools and catalysing investment in their creation.
- Jack W. Scannell
- James Bosley
- J. Mark Treherne
