Sachak-Patwa et al. estimate the risk of SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in low prevalence settings following the removal of travel restrictions and other non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the Isle of Man and Israel as case studies. Using a branching process mathematical model, the authors show that even after a large proportion of the population is vaccinated, there remains a risk of local outbreaks from imported cases.
- Rahil Sachak-Patwa
- Helen M. Byrne
- Robin N. Thompson
