Projection and prediction articles from across Nature Portfolio

This study shows that only about one-third of CMIP6 models, those with a more northern ITCZ mean position closer to the observed climatology, simulate a southward ITCZ shift consistent with the observations, which requires a substantial AMOC weakening along with a warmer base state.

Climate change is altering the timing—not just the volume—of meltwater from the Asian Water Tower. Although meltwater has historically buffered dry‑season urban water scarcity, future increases are concentrated in the monsoon season, weakening its effectiveness just as urban water demand rises.

Flood risk in the glacierized upper Indus basin is projected to increase through 2100, largely associated with rainfall and meltwater, with cryosphere–hydrology modeling suggesting potential implications for the Tarbela Dam and downstream communities.

A new metric shows that compound climate extremes rise faster with cumulative CO₂ emissions than models project, implying higher risks and smaller remaining carbon budgets for the 1.5 °C and 2 °C targets.

This study shows that global urban heat is shaped by both climate and urban morphology. Climate change dominates future urban heat in most cities, while urban morphology remains crucial for regional differences and targeted adaptation strategies.

High temperatures disrupt sleep worldwide, with disproportionate impacts on older adults, women and populations in lower-income countries. A study uses climate change simulations to project future global sleep erosion and, in turn, the decline in childhood general cognitive ability and associated socioeconomic costs.

A Europe-wide probabilistic assessment of coastal flood risk to road and rail infrastructure, at different levels of global warming, shows that each increment of warming amplifies flood damage. Smaller economies face the greatest relative economic impacts, and several countries will need to increase and potentially realign transport investments towards climate resilience.

Although climate action is undermined by political interests and institutional inertia, multiple safeguards are in place to prevent backsliding on progress so far, and positive feedbacks reinforce progress despite opposing forces. Key elements of climate action are irreversible and can be further strengthened by commitments, investments and positive narratives.

Antarctic ice shelves affect the mass loss of the Antarctic ice sheet and are vulnerable to damage from crevasses and rifts. Decades of satellite observations link this damage to past thinning and retreat of ice shelves. Damage is projected to intensify under future high-emission climate scenarios, further weakening ice shelves and accelerating ice loss.

Bridging traditional disciplinary silos, a study has mapped cascading climate risks to the European Union through stakeholder-co-produced impact chains and network analysis. It provides country-specific risk profiles by identifying critical intervention points — such as water, livelihoods or violent conflict — to support policy coherence in addressing interconnected vulnerabilities and guiding targeted adaptation.

Glacier microclimates can decouple glacier temperatures from ongoing climatic warming, slowing down melting. However, these microclimates will decay as glaciers retreat. A statistical model indicates that by the latter half of the twenty-first century, the temperature of glaciers will be increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in atmospheric temperature.