Table 4 Summary of probabilistic cost-effectiveness results of scenario analyses using list prices.
Scenario | Treatment ranking best NMBa [95% CI] | Treatment ranking 2nd best NMBa [95% CI] | Treatment ranking 3rd best NMBa [95% CI] |
|---|---|---|---|
Base-case | Subthreshold laser £174,414 [£160,952 – £187,227] | Bevacizumab £174,916 [£161,429 – £187,533] | Standard laser £173,646 [£159,605 – £187,244] |
Treatment efficacy ceased and natural history starts from 20 years | Bevacizumab £174,859 [£161,619 – £189,552] | Subthreshold laser £174,238 [£160,078 – £189,540] | Standard laser £173,961 [£160,318 – £188,203] |
Treatment efficacy ceased and natural history starts from 10 years | Subthreshold laser £172,451 [£159,238 – £185,078] | Standard laser £171,984 [£158,276 – £185,321] | Bevacizumab £171,813 [£159,075 – £184,042] |
Treatment efficacy ceased and natural history starts from 5 years | Subthreshold laser £169,896 [£156,990 – £182,867] | Standard laser £169,513 [£156,438 – £182,680] | Bevacizumab £167,528 [£154,558 – £180,516] |
25% of people continue treatment after 5 years | Bevacizumab £175,816 [£162,789 – £188,051] | Bevacizumab + Standard laser £174,313 [£161,091 – £186,674] | Subthreshold laser £174,172 [£160,535 – £188,263] |
75% of people continue treatment after 5 years | Bevacizumab £174,689 [£161,288 – £187,777] | Subthreshold laser £174,617 [£159,793 – £187,239] | Standard laser £174,151 [£160,186 – £188,096] |
Treatment occurs in a separate visit from monitoring | Subthreshold laser £173,774 [£160,234 – £187,907] | Standard laser £173,553 [£159,898 – £187,748] | Bevacizumab £172,929 [£159,819 – £186,044] |
Monitoring and treatment assumption (minimum) | Bevacizumab £177,514 [£164,053 – £191,212] | Subthreshold laser £174,987 [£160,622 – £189,146] | Standard laser £174,647 [£159,315 – £189,187] |
Monitoring and treatment assumption (maximum) | Subthreshold laser £172,953 [£158,548 – £187,519] | Standard laser £172,497 [£158,394 – £186,878] | Bevacizumab £171,971 [£159,158 – £185,572] |
