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Effects of climate change on residential infiltration and air pollution exposure

Journal of Exposure Science & Environmental Epidemiology volume 27, pages 16–23 (2017)Cite this article

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Abstract

Air exchange through infiltration is driven partly by indoor/outdoor temperature differences, and as climate change increases ambient temperatures, such differences could vary considerably even with small ambient temperature increments, altering patterns of exposures to both indoor and outdoor pollutants. We calculated changes in air fluxes through infiltration for prototypical detached homes in nine metropolitan areas in the United States (Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, and Seattle) from 1970–2000 to 2040–2070. The Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory model of infiltration was used in combination with climate data from eight regionally downscaled climate models from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program. Averaged over all study locations, seasons, and climate models, air exchange through infiltration would decrease by ~5%. Localized increased infiltration is expected during the summer months, up to 20–30%. Seasonal and daily variability in infiltration are also expected to increase, particularly during the summer months. Diminished infiltration in future climate scenarios may be expected to increase exposure to indoor sources of air pollution, unless these ventilation reductions are otherwise compensated. Exposure to ambient air pollution, conversely, could be mitigated by lower infiltration, although peak exposure increases during summer months should be considered, as well as other mechanisms.

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Acknowledgements

We wish to thank the NARCCAP for providing the data used in this paper. NARCCAP is funded by the National Science Foundation, the United States Department of Energy, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the United States Environmental Protection Agency Office of Research and Development. We also thank Bryan Bloomer, for inspiring conversations about climate change leading to this work, and about the role of the climate penalty on ambient air pollution. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the United States Environmental Protection Agency.

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  1. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, District of Columbia, USA

    Vito Ilacqua, John Dawson, Michael Breen, Sarany Singer & Ashley Berg

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  1. Vito Ilacqua
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Correspondence to Vito Ilacqua.

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Ilacqua, V., Dawson, J., Breen, M. et al. Effects of climate change on residential infiltration and air pollution exposure. J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol 27, 16–23 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1038/jes.2015.38

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