Figure 1: Skilful predictions of summer rainfall in the Sahel.
From: Skilful prediction of Sahel summer rainfall on inter-annual and multi-year timescales
(a,b) Spatial distribution of anomaly correlation coefficient between DePreSys3 hindcasts of summer rainfall and equivalent GPCC observations on a 1° × 1° grid for 1960–2014. Boxes outline the Sahel region and delineate the west and east Sahel at 10° E. All time series are linearly detrended and normalized. Stippled regions mark 95% significance (see Methods). (c,d) Red line denotes the normalized and linearly detrended DePreSys3 ensemble mean timeseries of summer Sahel rainfall. Black lines mark observational rainfall series sub-sampled to match hindcast dates and the light grey line shows the full observational timeseries. Circles highlight each data point. Correlation coefficients with 5–95% confidence intervals are indicated in brackets (see Methods). Upper panels show results for summer rainfall data averaged over years 2–5 from initialization. Lower panels show individual seasons for hindcasts initialized in the previous November.
