Fig. 2
Frequency of mining accidents. a Reported annual number of accidents (gray bars) and inferred mean accident rate (black line), based on a classic change-point model. Blue shading indicates the distribution of the accident rate. Red bars indicate the inferred change-point distribution. Arrows indicate relevant historical events. (1) Safety report of a Royal Commission, (2) Foundation of the Miner’s Federation, (3) Enactment of safety regulations. b Same as in a for the alternative model with additional Gaussian fluctuations of the accident rate. c, d Distributions of the magnitude of accident-rate fluctuations (standard deviation) before c and after d the change-point, for the alternative model shown in b. e Relative model evidence values of the classic a versus the alternative b change-point model
