Fig. 6
Weighting different climate change scenarios. a Reconstructed annual mean temperature (red line) and corresponding standard error intervals (red shading) from the PAGES 2k Consortium for the Australasia region. Assuming a linear increase in temperature after a break-point, the distribution of the inferred temperature (blue shading), together with its mean value (black line) and 1 s.d., 2 s.d., and 3 s.d.-intervals (from dark to light gray) are displayed. The inferred distribution of the breakpoint is depicted in gray. b Same as in a, but assuming a quadratic increase in temperature after a break-point. c Same as in a, but assuming a second temperature plateau after a linear warming. d Distribution of predicted temperature differences between 2001 and 2026, obtained by averaging of single model predictions, weighted by the respective model evidence values (inset)
