Fig. 4

Energy balance constraints on surface heat flux patterns. The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) effective radiative forcings (ERF) over land and ocean (ERF^L/O) must equal the surface radiative perturbation (∆R^L/O_surf) plus any atmospheric absorption (∆AA^L/O) by vertical radiative energy conservation. Because the atmosphere and land surface cannot store energy long-term (R^L_surf + H^L_surf = 0, assuming positive downward sign convention), the TOA ERFs must be balanced through the ocean surface energy perturbation (R^O_surf + H^O_surf). The ocean heat flux perturbation (H^O_surf) will, therefore, be responsible for balancing the total atmospheric absorption change plus the land surface radiative perturbation