Fig. 2

Projected changes in European maize and wheat yields for current mix of irrigated and rainfed land use. Relative yield changes were estimated for the period 2040 to 2069 compared to the baseline period (1981–2010) for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The boxplots depict 25th to 75th percentile values across the crop models (eight for winter wheat and six for maize) and GCMs (two for RCP2.6 and five for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). Top (bottom) whiskers extend to the minimum (maximum) of the maximum (minimum) value or the 75th (25th) percentile value plus (minus) 1.5 times the difference between the 75th and 25th percentile values. Circles indicate outliers. Green bars indicate yield changes considering CO₂ fertilization effects and gray bars indicate changes without CO₂ fertilization. Yields at the pixel level were aggregated to EU level considering baseline production areas