Fig. 2

Ensemble mean and standard deviation of Arctic climate change by 2100. CMIP5 RCP8.5 projected surface temperature change by 2100 for (a) annual mean, (b) winter (January–February), (c) sunlit season (March through September), and (d) autumn (October, November, and December) with the corresponding ensemble standard deviations (e–h). i–l show the ensemble mean projected changes in sea ice concentration (ΔSIC) for the seasons above, and m–p are the corresponding ensemble standard deviations in ΔSIC