Fig. 5

Relationship between regional warming pattern and individual partial temperature contributions. Select partial temperature contributions are plotted against projected temperature change by year 2100 using individual grid boxes for (a) winter longwave clear-sky, (b) winter ocean heat storage, (c) winter surface turbulent flux, (d) summer surface albedo feedback, and (e) autumn cloud radiative effect. The bracketed ranges show the ensemble mean temperature change (black filled circle) and the ±1 standard deviation for various Arctic regions; temperature changes for some individual models exceed this range