Table 1 Definitions of each transmission scenario and the parameters estimated from the data

Model name	Transmission assumption	λ _T	λ _UG	ρ	t _c	γ
Scenario 1_v1	Constant	Yes	No	Yes	No	No
Scenario 1_v2	Constant	Yes	No	No	No	No
Scenario 2_v1	Fixed change point	Yes	No	Yes	Yes	Yes
Scenario 2_v2	Fixed change point	Yes	No	No	Yes	Yes
Scenario 2_v3	Fixed change point	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Scenario 2_v4	Fixed change point	Yes	Yes	No	Yes	Yes
Scenario 3_v1	Linear decline	Yes	No	Yes	No	Yes
Scenario 3_v2	Linear decline	Yes	Yes	Yes	No	Yes
Scenario 3_v3	Linear decline	Yes	No	No	No	Yes
Scenario 3_v4	Linear decline	Yes	Yes	No	No	Yes

For each scenario we indicate with a yes or a no as to whether or not a given parameter was estimated from the data for that scenario. The parameters listed are defined as follows: λ_T (Rate of sero-conversion due to exposure to trachoma), λ_UG (Rate of sero-conversion due to exposure to urogenital infection), ρ (Rate of sero-reversion), t_c(Fixed time point at which transmission intensity changed), γ (Proportional decline in transmission at t_c or over time). Note that the interpretation of γ for scenario 2 and 3 are different. For scenario 2, it is the ratio between average transmission rates of two time intervals. For scenario 3, it is the ratio between two end points of the whole study period

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