Fig. 3

Centennial changes as a function of month from CMIP5 models. For Arctic (67°−90°N) sea-ice concerntraion (SIC, in % of Arctic area, shading, multiplied by −1), Arctic-to-global ratio of the Tas change (AA, black line, multiplied by 10 in order to use the left y-axis), and Arctic surface energy fluxes (in W m⁻²). a 2070–2099 minus 1970–1999, b 2170–2199 minus 2070–2099, and c 2270–2299 minus 2170–2199 under the historical and RCP85 scenarios from the ensemble mean of nine model runs from the nine CMIP5 models. Net SW = net shortwave radiation (positive downard), upward LW = upward longwave radiation, SH = sensible heat, LH = latent heat. d Time-dependent warming and sea-ice loss from CMIP5 models. Time series of the difference between the 20 year periods separated by the plotted year in annual Arctic (67°−90°N, red solid) and global-mean (red dashed) surface air temperature (Tas), annual Arctic SIC (blue), and the difference between the red solid and red dashed lines (black) based on the ensemble mean of nine simulations from nine CMIP5 models. The correlation coefficient between the lines are: r (SIC, Tas_Arctic) = −0.97, r (sic,Tas_global) = −0.90, r (sic,Tas_diff) = −0.95, and r (sic, AA) = −0.80, where AA = the ratio of the Arctic to global Tas change (data before 2000 were not used for AA). These correlations have a p-value well below 0.01