Fig. 1

Visual predictive checks of the final population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic model of piperaquine. a The final population pharmacokinetic model, b the interval-censoring time-to-event model of the internal data, and c the final pharmacodynamic model predicting the external data. Open circles represent observed capillary plasma piperaquine concentrations and open triangles represent observed venous plasma concentrations. A solid line represents the median observed plasma concentrations and dashed lines represent the 5^th and 95^th percentiles of the observed plasma concentrations. Shaded areas represent the predicted 95% confidence intervals of each percentile. Solid lines in panel (b) and (c) represent observed Kaplan–Meier survival plots. Shaded areas represent the 95% prediction intervals