Fig. 2
Estimated annual poaching intensity—observed and estimated. a Annual estimates of per capita poaching rate across 53 MIKE monitoring sites. Displayed estimates are annual median poaching rates across all sites in each year, derived from 3000 MCMC samples. Grey lines display estimates from the model fitted to all data, with solid black line showing median estimates and dashed lines outlining 90% CI. Blue boxes represent estimates from the model (same structure) fitted to training data (2002–13) only, red colour highlights estimates for test data (2014–17). Boxplot centre lines represent median estimates, box bounds first and third quartiles, and whiskers 90% CIs. Crosses represent overall observed poaching rate across all sites and will be biased towards sites where more carcasses are found. b Median PIKE estimates for the testing period (2014–17) from 3000 MCMC samples of the model fitted to training data (2002–13) only, compared against the respective observed PIKE values. Darker grey indicates larger sample size. The black line and error envelope represent the mean estimates and the 95% confidence interval from a weighted regression fitted to these data, the dashed line represents identity. \(\widetilde {R^2}\) of weighted correlation is 0.48 (90% CI: 0.39–0.54)
