Table 1 List of methods, key strengths, and further research directions addressing current limitations

From: Inferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences

Method

Key strengths

Further research directions

Granger causality and nonparametric extensions9,37,99

Significance assessment; nonparametric versions

Dealing with contemporaneous effects and feedback cycles; high-dimensionality; deterministic dependencies; synergistic effects; time scales; unobserved variables

Nonlinear state-space methods10,11

State-dependent nonlinear systems; contemporaneous effects

Significance assessment; high-dimensionality; highly synchronous dynamics; high stochasticity; time scales; unobserved variables

Conditional independence-based algorithms12

High-dimensionality; unobserved variables; nonparametric tests

Significance assessment; deterministic effects; synergistic effects; time scales; contemporaneous feedback cycles

PCMCI23,24

High-dimensionality; time delays; strong autocorrelation; nonparametric tests

Unobserved variables; deterministic effects; synergistic effects; time scales; contemporaneous feedback cycles

Information-theoretic algorithms23,24,51

High-dimensionality; nonparametric; time delays; information-theoretic interpretation

Significance assessment; unobserved variables; deterministic effects; synergistic effects; time scales; contemporaneous feedback cycles; efficient entropy estimation

Structural causal models13,38

Contemporaneous effects; nonparametric versions

High-dimensionality; synergistic effects; time scales; unobserved variables; time delays

Invariance-based methods4,13,57,58,60,61

Utilizes heterogeneity in space and time

Causality in stationary regimes; same as for SCMs

Bayesian score-based approaches48

Bayesian uncertainty assessment; inclusion of expert knowledge

High-dimensionality; nonlinearity; deterministic effects; synergistic effects; time scales; contemporaneous feedback cycles; unobserved variables; combine with cond. independence-based methods100

  1. This table is intended to be a rough method guide. A detailed overview is beyond the scope of this Perspective and hardly possible because comparison studies are currently largely lacking. Spurring research to overcome this lack is a goal of this Perspective and the accompanying platform causeme.net. The terms used in this table are explained in the challenges section and illustrated in Fig. 4