Fig. 6

Data summary of regional sea level, environmental transitions, and regional Holocene climate parameters. a Mangrove and coral-based sea-level curve synthesis points (gray circles) and mean RSLR curve (black triangles) with error bars1. Florida Bay cores are shown in green (FMT) and blue (MET), with age errors. Depth errors are smaller than the dots, and do not account for shallow compaction. Transitions from freshwater peat to mangrove peat (FMT) determined by pollen assemblages, and the mangrove peat to estuarine carbonate mud (MET) determined from pollen and carbon isotope analyses from the four cores (this study) are placed at depth below mean sea level, relative to their 2014 position. FMT freshwater to mangrove transition, MET mangrove to estuarine transition. b δ13C for each of the studied cores. Transitions from values < −22‰ to > −18‰ correspond to transitions from C3 freshwater and mangrove peats to C4-like sea grasses and algae, indicating the shift to estuarine conditions. This isotopic shift is marked by the blue bar. c Greater Caribbean sites indicating drought: Abaco island aridity46, No Man’s Land, Abaco Island sink hole marine sapropel45, Dos Anas Cave δ18O speleothem record hiatus47, Northeast Shark River Slough gypsum occurrence36. d Titanium recorded in Cariaco Basin, Venezuela sediments, as a proxy for terrestrial runoff41, interpreted as a record of ITCZ position. e Laguna Pallaconcha lake record of red color intensity41, interpreted as a record of El Niño prevalence. High-amplitude variability between anomalously low and high Ti values from ~3.7 to 2.7 ka corresponds to a period of a highly variable ENSO and its coupling to the ITCZ. Light-blue shaded band highlights period of transgression