Fig. 3
From: Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake
Bayesian predictive distribution. PB(mex ≤ m|Sn), Eq. (1), are plotted as solid curves and the corresponding probability density functions pB(m|Sn), are plotted as histograms, for the sequence initiated by the April 14, 2016, M6.5 foreshock of the M7.3 Kumamoto earthquake (April 16, 2016). Each distirbution corresponds to the same early training time interval [T0, Te] = [0.0, 2.16] with Ts = 0.05 days with all the events above magnitude mc ≥ 3.3 and for the different forecasting time intervals ΔT = 5, 10, 15 days. The probabilities to have large earthquakes above magnitudes mex ≥ 5.8 and mex ≥ 6.3 are given in the legend
