Fig. 5
From: Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake
Comparison of the Bayesian predictive distributions. Several predictive distributions are plotted for the largest expected aftershock to be greater than m during the next ΔT = 10 days for the 2016 Kumamoto sequence. The distributions were computed employing: the ETAS rate and MCMC sampling with a flat prior (solid blue curve); the ETAS rate and MCMC sampling with the Gamma prior (solid dark brown curve) in both cases using the foreshocks and 1 day of aftershocks after the M7.3 mainshock. For the rest of the distributions, 1 day of aftershocks after the M7.3 mainshock was used. The distributions were computed using: the ETAS rate and MCMC sampling with the Gamma prior (solid pink curve); the Omori–Utsu (OU) rate with a flat prior (dashed violet curve); the OU rate and MCMC sampling with the Gamma prior (dashed orange curve); the Gumbel distribution and OU rate (dashed dark cyan curve)
