Table 3 Summary of the parameters used for the prior distribution and the proposal distribution corresponding to the parameters of the ETAS model {θ, ω} = {β, μ, K, c, p, α}

From: Forecasting the magnitude of the largest expected earthquake

Parameter

β

μ

K

c

p

α

The sequence: [Ts, Te] = [0.03, 1.16]

 Mean (Gamma)

1.7

1.0

0.7

0.019

1.27

2.1

 Var (Gamma)

0.1

0.05

0.01

0.0005

0.05

0.1

 Var (TN)

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.001

0.01

0.01

The sequence: [Ts, Te] = [0.05, 2.16]

 Mean (Gamma)

1.8

9.4

0.67

0.019

1.27

2.14

  Var (Gamma)

0.1

0.1

0.01

0.0001

0.05

0.1

 Var (TN)

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.001

0.01

0.01

  1. For the priors π({θ, ω}) the Gamma distribution was used with the mean and variance specified for each parameter. For the proposal distribution J(y|x) the truncated normal (TN) distribution was used with the specified variance for each model parameter
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