Table 2 Incidence rates (IRs, unadjusted) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs, unadjusted and adjusted) for men (N = 9630) by female ART coverage, ART scale-up period, and year.

From: Declines in HIV incidence among men and women in a South African population-based cohort

 

Events

Person-years

Inc rate (95% CI)

Unadj. IRR (95% CI)

P-value

Adj. IRR (95% CI)d

P-value

Model 1: By female ART coveragea

 0–9%

149

6809

2.20 (1.81–2.68)

Ref.

–

Ref.

–

 10–24%

339

14,175

2.40 (2.12–2.71)

1.09 (0.85–1.39)

0.495

0.72 (0.58–0.89)

<0.01

 25–34%

74

3221

2.30 (1.70–3.11)

1.05 (0.73–1.51)

0.805

0.64 (0.46–0.89)

<0.01

 35–55%

294

16,669

1.76 (1.55–2.01)

0.80 (0.63–1.02)

0.068

0.52 (0.40–0.68)

<0.01

Model 2: By ART scale-up periodb

 2005–2010

489

20,984

2.33 (2.12–2.57)

Ref.

–

Ref.

–

 2011–2015

315

15,308

2.06 (1.82–2.33)

0.88 (0.75–1.04)

0.147

0.75 (0.62–0.90)

<0.01

 2016–2017

52

4582

1.15 (0.82–1.60)

0.49 (0.34–0.70)

<0.01

0.52 (0.38–0.72)

<0.01

Model 3: By yearc

 2005

69

3239

2.14 (1.57–2.93)

0.86 (0.56–1.33)

0.504

1.50 (1.04–2.16)

0.028

 2006

80

3569

2.24 (1.69–2.96)

0.90 (0.59–1.36)

0.621

1.46 (1.02–2.08)

0.038

 2007

84

3634

2.30 (1.74–3.05)

0.93 (0.61–1.42)

0.724

1.06 (0.74–1.52)

0.755

 2008

86

3679

2.35 (1.78–3.09)

0.94 (0.63–1.42)

0.783

0.98 (0.68–1.41)

0.910

 2009

85

3483

2.45 (1.85–3.24)

0.99 (0.65–1.50)

0.947

1.10 (0.78–1.55)

0.599

 2010

83

3377

2.45 (1.85–3.25)

0.99 (0.65–1.50)

0.952

1.06 (0.76–1.48)

0.732

 2011

74

3221

2.30 (1.70–3.11)

0.93 (0.58–1.47)

0.744

0.92 (0.65–1.30)

0.621

 2012

75

3039

2.49 (1.83–3.37)

Ref.

–

Ref.

–

 2013

67

3033

2.22 (1.64–3.01)

0.89 (0.57–1.39)

0.620

0.92 (0.65–1.30)

0.621

 2014

56

3046

1.83 (1.29–2.59)

0.73 (0.45–1.19)

0.210

0.65 (0.44–0.96)

0.029

 2015

41

2967

1.39 (0.94–2.07)

0.56 (0.34–0.93)

0.025

0.65 (0.44–0.95)

0.027

 2016

32

2602

1.24 (0.79–1.95)

0.50 (0.29–0.87)

0.014

0.70 (0.47–1.04)

0.074

 2017

20

1979

1.01 (0.58–1.76)

0.41 (0.22–0.76)

<0.01

0.39 (0.23–0.67)

<0.01

  1. HIV events, person-years, unadjusted IRs, and unadjusted adjusted IRRs are averages over 300 datasets generated by imputing a single random infection date within the censoring interval. Rubin’s rules were used to calculate 95% confidence intervals
  2. aOpposite-sex ART coverage used because of the generalized, heterosexual HIV epidemic in South Africa, with 0–9% as the reference category
  3. bTime intervals were defined by changes in national criteria for ART eligibility, with 2005–2010 as the reference period
  4. cTime intervals were defined by year, with 2012 as the reference year
  5. dEstimates adjusted for age, self-reported condom use, circumcision and marital status, household assets index, cumulative time spent outside surveillance area, and opposite-sex HIV prevalence in the surrounding community (see Supplementary Table 4 for full results)
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