Fig. 4: Percentage of countries with a relative loss compared to no climate change versus country-level Gini Coefficients in 2099.

Values represent median projections for Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 3 for RCP8.5 (orange), geoengineering-stabilized RCP8.5 (green) and geoengineering-mirrored RCP8.5 (purple) simulations. Numbers represent models specified as follows: Model 1 estimates a pooled growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation, year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 2 estimates a growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation and lags up to 5 years, year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 3 estimates a growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation for rich and poor countries separately, year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 4 estimates a growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation for rich and poor countries separately lagged up to 5 years, year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 5 estimates a growth with linear temperature separately for rich and poor countries, region-year fixed effects, and no country time trend. Model 6 estimates a pooled growth model with quadratic temperature, region-year fixed effects, and no country time trend. Model 7 estimates a pooled growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation, region-year fixed effects, and no country time trend. Model 8 estimates a pooled growth model with quadratic temperature and precipitation lagged up to 5 years, region-year fixed effects, and no country time trend. Model 9 estimates a pooled levels model with quadratic temperature and precipitation, region-year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 10 estimates a pooled levels model with quadratic temperature and precipitation, year fixed effects, and a quadratic country time trend. Model 11 estimates a pooled levels model with quadratic temperature and precipitation, region-year fixed effects, and no country time trend.