Fig. 3: Trends in rainfed harvested area between 1973–2012.

Trends are calculated for maize (a), wheat (b), rice (c), and soybeans (d), using linear regression, and all values are displayed across the top 98% of harvested areas. Locations in brown/orange are experiencing decreases in rainfed harvested areas, locations in green are experiencing increases, and locations in gray are experiencing near-zero trends. Insets highlight areas that have experienced large changes and illustrate global trends, including a northwestern shift of maize (e) in the US, a northward shift of wheat in Europe (f), a northward shift in rice in China (g), and a general increase in soybean in Brazil and Argentina (h). White circles indicate the harvested-area weighted centroid of that region circa 1975 and the black arrowhead indicates the weighted centroid of that region circa 2010.