Fig. 3: Model forecast using parameters obtained by sampling from CDF and 95% confidence intervals.
From: Prostate-specific antigen dynamics predict individual responses to intermittent androgen deprivation
a The model predicted responsiveness in cycles two (98% of simulations) and three (90.3% of simulations) for Patient 017. The probability of resistant \(\left( {P({\mathrm{\Omega }})} \right)\) was less than its respective κ \(\left( {\kappa _2 = 0.45,\;\kappa _3 = 0.29} \right)\) for each cycle. The patient completed the trial on day = 2202. b The model predicted resistance in 23.5% of cycle 2 simulations and in 46.6% of cycle 3 simulations for Patient 054. The predicted probability of resistance in cycle three was greater than κ3 so the patient would be advised to stop the trial. Data showed that he became resistant on day 1384 during the third cycle, as predicted.
