Fig. 1: Experimental design of the decadal prediction system.
From: Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
a Trended and b detrended, area-weighted annual surface pH anomalies for the (black) reconstruction, (red) observational product, (orange) Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) ensemble mean, and (blue) CESM Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) decadal forecasts initialized in 1954, 1965, 1977, 1991, 2003, and 2017 (other initializations were omitted for visual clarity). The dark blue line is the ensemble mean forecast, and thin blue lines are the individual 40 forecasts. The blue dots do not sit exactly atop the black line due to the rapid divergence of forecasts away from initialization within weeks. The dashed red lines denote when the model loses observed variability in atmospheric CO2 forcing (Supplementary Fig. 1A). The inset shows the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem bounds, over which all area-weighted analyses are computed.
