Fig. 5: Predictive skill of surface pH anomalies.
From: Skillful multiyear predictions of ocean acidification in the California Current System
a–e Community Earth System Model Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (CESM-DPLE) initialized forecasts of detrended annual surface pH anomalies for lead years one through five correlated with the observational product over 1990–2005. f–j Persistence forecast for the observations for lead years one through five. Stippling in a–j denotes statistically significant correlations at the 95% level using a t test. An effective sample size is used in the t test to account for autocorrelation in the two time series being correlated. k–o Difference between the CESM-DPLE forecast anomaly correlation coefficients (ACCs) and observational persistence. Stippling indicates that the initialized prediction is statistically significant over the observational persistence forecast at the 95% level using a z test. Only positive ACCs and ΔACCs are stippled.
