Fig. 2: Dominant spatial structures of the inter-model warming pattern spread (WPS).
From: A less cloudy picture of the inter-model spread in future global warming projections
a–c The spatial patterns of the first three empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes (K) that account for almost all of the zonal mean inter-model surface warming spread. d–f Scatter diagrams of model deviations from the global and ensemble mean surface temperature change, which is the global warming spread (GWS, K; abscissa) versus that captured by EOF1, EOF3, and their sum (K; ordinate). The numbers inside the parenthesis on top of a–c correspond to the percentage of the variance in the WPS explained by the first three EOF modes, while the numbers inside < > on a–c are their respective global-mean values (K). The inter-model GWS captured by an EOF model is determined from the product of the global-mean value of its spatial pattern and a principal component. The principal components of these three EOF modes are shown in Supplementary Fig. 3.
