Fig. 2: An overview of the modeling approach.
From: Hunting strategies to increase detection of chronic wasting disease in cervids
The model consists of three compartments and steps giving output to be used in the next model. The surveillance sensitivity (SSe) is the probability of detecting the disease from the specific sampling regime and at the specified design prevalence, the latter being the prevalence of infection to be detected. SSe is calculated for each year on the basis of the simulated data. Together with the design prevalence and risk of infection introduction from a year to another, the yearly SSe is used to update the estimated probability of freedom from CWD for each successive year. The model is run for various combinations of selected values of key parameters (marked in bold) and compared with respect to the time to reach confidence in freedom from infection (cfr. Supplementary Table 1).
