Fig. 4: Calibration plot and decision curves comparing the COVID-19 and baseline models.
From: Developing a COVID-19 mortality risk prediction model when individual-level data are not available
a Calibration plots plotting the observed outcome against the predicted probabilities of both models. The diagonal gray line represents perfect calibration. A smoothed line is fit to each curve. The rug above and under the plots illustrates the distribution of predictions for each model. The plot covers 95% of COVID-19 predictions. b The decision curve plots the standardized net benefit against different decision thresholds for both models. Net benefit is a measure of utility that calculates a weighted sum of true positives and false positives, weighted according to the threshold. Vertical dashed lines were added at relevant decision thresholds that were used in practice. Both panels use the COVID-19 patient population, n = 4179 unique patients. COVID-19 coronavirus disease 2019.
