Table 2 Comparison of each of the simulated scenarios.

From: A network model of Italy shows that intermittent regional strategies can alleviate the COVID-19 epidemic

Simulation

Total cases

Total deaths

Maximum hospitalized

Days over hospital’s capacity (nation)

Regions over hospital’s capacity

Economic cost [M€]

All regions but Lombardy are locked down (Fig. 2)

10,550,000 ± 146,084

1,196,063 ± 97,122

137,640 ± 10,249

75.8 ± 2.7

3

503,355 ± 0

Intermittent regional measures (Fig. 3a, b)

1,986,601 ± 76,184

173,637 ± 3911

2801 ± 170

0 ± 0

0

509,142 ± 6606

Intermittent national measure (Fig. 3c, S4)

2,162,539 ± 194,929

205,261 ± 10,854

4481 ± 277

0 ± 0

3

562,373 ± 12,809

Intermittent regional measures with increased testing (Fig. 4)

1,590,459 ± 69,118

128,644 ± 2690

2057 ± 102

0 ± 0

0

366,514 ± 12,258

  1. Metrics to evaluate the impact over 1 year of each of the simulated scenarios are reported showing the effectiveness of the intermittent regional measures shown in Figs. 3 and 4 in avoiding any saturation of the regional health systems while mitigating the impact of the epidemic. We report the average values ±1 standard deviation calculated over 10,000 repetitions of each simulation, where the parameter values are sampled using a Latin Hypercube technique centred at the nominal parameter values reported in Supplementary Table 4.
Back to article page