Fig. 2: Quantile–quantile plots of modeled changes in mixed layer temperature with varying ENSO and seasonal cycle parameters at the Line Islands.
From: Modulation of late Pleistocene ENSO strength by the tropical Pacific thermocline
Temperature data is from Simple Ocean Data Assimilation SODA 2.1.6 monthly reanalysis (1958–2008)30 at 36 m for the grid box encompassing the core location. ENSO months are identified by National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center ONI values. The reference interval is the unchanged 36 m data set. Blue lines with square points show quantiles after a reduction in variability factors, red lines with circles show quantiles after increasing variability factors. The gray shaded regions show the 90% confidence interval of the quantiles of the altered data. The gray box outlines the ENSO-sensitive region of the population distributions (90th–98th quantiles). a Quantile–quantile (Q–Q) plot showing the changes in SST distributions resulting from a ±25% modification of the seasonal cycle, ENSO frequency and amplitude simultaneously. b–d Normalized Q–Q plots showing the decomposition of temperature changes under variation of one parameter: b ±25% alteration of the seasonal cycle, c ±25% change in ENSO frequency via addition or subtraction of ENSO events, and d ±25% change in ENSO amplitude via enhancement or reduction of temperature anomalies during ENSO events. The largest and most consistent changes in the ENSO-sensitive region are observed with changed ENSO amplitude. Median Absolute Deviation (MAD) is listed for each scenario showing the response of MAD to changing sources of variability. MAD changes are more pronounced under altered ENSO amplitude. MAD for the reference population is 0.71.
