Fig. 7: Subnational heterogeneity.
From: Inferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
a The black dots represent the estimated attack rates in each province of China by using the country-level contact matrix and the location-specific age structure of the population. Colored dots represent the estimated attack rates in each location by using both the location-specific contact matrix and the age structure of the population. The colored lines connect the two estimated values of attack rate for each location. The transmission rate is set such that R0 = 1.5 when using the country-level matrix. Each map shows the percentage variation of the attack rate using the location-specific contact matrix with respect to using the national contact matrix as a proxy for the subnational contact patterns (i.e., (ARc − ARl)/ARc, where ARc is the attack rate estimated by using the country-level contact matrix, and ARl is that estimated by using the location-specific matrix). Colors toward Astra in the color scale indicate an overestimation of the attack rate in the location when using the country-level contact matrix as a proxy for the subnational contact patterns. Conversely, colors towards grape in the color scale indicate an underestimation of the attack rate in the location when using the country-level matrix as a proxy for the subnational contact patterns. b Same as a, but for the USA. c Same as a, but for India.
