Fig. 4: Long-term projections of the temporal precipitation variability response to external forcing (ΔPσ) and the associated uncertainties. | Nature Communications

Fig. 4: Long-term projections of the temporal precipitation variability response to external forcing (ΔPσ) and the associated uncertainties.

From: More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Fig. 4: Long-term projections of the temporal precipitation variability response to external forcing (ΔPσ) and the associated uncertainties.The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

a–d The six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs), and e, f CMIP5 multi-model ensemble using the atmospheric sub-ensemble method (A-CMIP5, see “Methods” for details) for the period 2050–2099 (RCP8.5 forcing) as compared to 1950–1999 (historical forcing). a, e Multi-ensemble-mean forced response (\({{\Delta }}{P}_{{\sigma }_{\text{F}}}\)), b, f uncertainty due to internal variability (UIV), c, g uncertainty due to model-to-model differences (UMD) and d, h percentage variance contribution of UMD to the sum of UMD and UIV.

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