Fig. 5: Model-to-model agreement on the sign of the response to external forcing. | Nature Communications

Fig. 5: Model-to-model agreement on the sign of the response to external forcing.

From: More accurate quantification of model-to-model agreement in externally forced climatic responses over the coming century

Fig. 5

a Mean-state temperature (ΔTF), b temporal temperature variability (\({{\Delta }}{T}_{{\sigma }_{\text{F}}}\)), c mean-state precipitation (ΔPF) and d temporal precipitation variability (\({{\Delta }}{P}_{{\sigma }_{\text{F}}}\)). The forced response is computed for the period 2050–2099 (RCP8.5 forcing) as compared to 1950–1999 (historical forcing). Red shows agreement on an increase in each quantity, while blue shows agreement on a decrease. White regions show <83% agreement on the sign of the change (less than five of six single model initial-condition large ensembles (SMILEs) agree). Stippling shows where there is 79% agreement on the sign of the change using the atmospheric CMIP5 sub-ensembles (11 or more out of the 14 subsets agree), with crosses indicating an increase and dots indicating a decrease. The measures of agreement correspond to a significance level of 0.01 using a binomial distribution.

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