Table 1 Model parameters.

M

Population size

80,000,000

People

Assumed

\({R}_{t}^{H}\)

Reproduction number (hidden)

1.80

–

^2,67,68

Γ

Recovery rate

0.10

0.08–0.12

Day⁻¹

^58,69,70

ξ

Asymptomatic ratio

0.15

0.12–0.33

–

^22,23

φ

Fraction skipping testing

0.20

0.10–0.40

–

¹⁶

ν

Isolation factor (traced)

0.10

–

Assumed

λ_r

random-testing rate

0

0–0.02

Day⁻¹

Assumed

λ_s

symptom-driven testing rate

0.10

0–1

Day⁻¹

Assumed

η

Tracing efficiency

0.66

–

Assumed

\({N}_{\max }\)

Maximal tracing capacity

≈ 718

200–6000

Cases day⁻¹

Assumed^a

ϵ

Missed contacts (traced)

0.10

–

Assumed

Φ

Influx rate (hidden)

15

Cases day⁻¹

Assumed^a

\({\lambda }_{r,\max }\)

Maximal test capacity per capita

0.002

Cases day⁻¹

^56,57

\({R}_{t}^{T}\)

Reproduction number (traced)

0.36

–

\({R}_{t}^{T}=\left(\nu +\epsilon \right){R}_{t}^{H}\)

ξ^ap

Apparent asymptomatic ratio

0.32

–

ξ^ap = ξ + (1 − ξ)φ

\({R}_{\,\text{crit}\,}^{H}\)

Critical reproduction number (hidden)

1.89

–

Numerically calculated from model parameters