Table 2 Scenarios for future projection of express delivery in China.
From: Low-carbon pathways for the booming express delivery sector in China
Scenario | Description | Note |
|---|---|---|
S1 (faster delivery) | The proportion of air mode was increased by 10% (to substitute for road freight). | Considered to speed up the delivery service based on examining future directions of express delivery sector38. |
S2 (slower delivery) | The proportion of railway mode was increased by 15% (to substitute for road freight). | Considered a slowdown of delivery speed (a hypothetical scenario which is probably contrary to actual demand). |
S3 (fuel standard upgrade) | More stringent emission standards for heavy-duty vehicles came into effect (from current China IV and V standards to China VI)a. | More stringent standards were drawn up leading to the implementation of China VI standards in 202039. |
S4 (less packaging material) | The volume of packaging materials was reduced by 15%. | An enforceable requirement for the reduction of packaging materials in 2019 according to the “Express Delivery Interim Regulations” promulgated by the State Council of the People’s Republic of Chinab40. |
S5 (logistics optimization) | The transportation distance (Phase III) for each parcel was reduced by 15% on average. | According to the practical case of the top three domestic private express delivery companies (major express companies in China) in 201825. |
S6 (multiple measures combined) | An all-encompassing scenario to combine multiple measures (S2–S4) |
