Fig. 4: Assessment of the HyPrColoc posterior probability.

Simulation results for a sample size N ∈ {5,000, 10,000, 20,000} and a causal variant explaining {0.5%, 1%, 2%} of variation across m ∈ {2, 5, 10, 20, 100} traits. Presented is the distribution of the HyPrColoc posterior probability of full colocalization (PPFC) for variant-level priors only (top); the probability of correctly identifying the causal variant (middle) and; linkage disequilibrium between an incorrectly identified causal variant and the true causal variant (bottom). Error bars denote the 1st and 9th deciles and a point denotes the median value and performance was summarised from 1000 simulated datasets. Comparing performance across increasing study sample size and variance explained by the causal variant, power to detect all colocalized traits is reduced when including studies with smaller sample sizes (top row), however, including these studies can still boost the probability of correctly identifying the shared causal variant irrespective of variance explained (middle row).