Table 2 Univariate and multivariable survival analyses of the predictive value of deep learning risk scores assessed in the test cohorts.

From: Deep convolutional neural networks to predict cardiovascular risk from computed tomography

Risk groups

Eventsa

Univariate

Multivariable

HR

95% CI

P value

HR

95% CI

P value

HR

95% CI

P value

NLST: n = 14,959; events: ASCVD death, n = 288

   

Adjusted for age and sex

Adjusted for age, sex, diabetes, hypertension, past heart-disease, past stroke

Very low

0.6% (23/3613)

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

Low

1.1% (53/4730)

1.77

1.08–2.88

0.022

1.62

0.99–2.65

0.054

1.57

0.96–2.57

 0.069

Moderate

2.4% (56/2373)

3.76

2.32–6.12

<0.001

3.05

1.87–5.00

<0.001

2.79

1.70–4.57

<0.001

High

3.7% (156/4243)

5.98

3.86–9.26

<0.001

4.34

2.75–6.84

<0.001

3.87

2.45–6.11

<0.001

PROMISE: n = 4,021; events: all-cause mortality, MI, UA, n = 130

   

Adjusted for age and sex

Adjusted for Framingham Risk Score

Very low

1.5% (25/1615)

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

Low

3.2% (41/1264)

2.16

1.31–3.55

0.002

1.96

1.18–3.25

0.009

1.90

1.15–3.15

0.012

Moderate

5.0% (28/557)

3.35

1.95–5.74

<0.001

2.83

1.62–4.96

<0.001

2.57

1.47–4.50

0.001

High

6.2% (36/585)

4.10

2.46–6.84

<0.001

3.21

1.84–5.60

<0.001

2.95

1.71–5.08

<0.001

ROMICAT-II: n = 441; events: ACS, n = 38

Risk groups

Events

 

Adjusted for age and sex

Adjusted for TIMI Risk Score

OR

95% CI

P value

OR

95%CI

P value

OR

95% CI

P value

Very low

1.5% (4/260)

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

n/a

Reference

Reference

Low

11.0% (13/118)

7.92

2.52–24.86

<0.001

6.46

1.96–21.30

0.002

7.70

2.44–24.30

0.001

Moderate

20.6% (7/34)

16.59

4.56–60.33

<0.001

12.60

3.19–49.83

<0.001

16.20

4.44–59.13

<0.001

High

48.3% (14/29)

59.73

17.50–203.78

<0.001

47.65

12.55–180.94

<0.001

57.11

16.55–197.12

<0.001

  1. NLST18 National Lung Screening Trial, PROMISE19 Prospective Multicenter Imaging Study for Evaluation of Chest Pain, ROMICAT-II20 Rule Out Myocardial Infarction using Computer Assisted Tomography II, HR hazard ratio, CI confidence interval, CVD cardiovascular disease, ASCVD atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, htn hypertension, MI myocardial infarction, UA unstable angina, ACS acute coronary syndrome, OR odds ratio, TIMI thrombolysis in myocardial infarction, n/a not available. Framingham Risk Score: age, total cholesterol, smoker, HDL cholesterol systolic blood pressure. TIMI risk score: age, aspirin use, angina, elevated serum cardiac biomarkers, known coronary artery disease, at least three risk factors for coronary artery disease, such as: hypertension, smoker, low HDL cholesterol, diabetes mellitus, family history of premature coronary artery disease. Coronary calcium risk categories are based on: very low risk (0: no coronary calcifications found), low risk (1–100: small amounts of coronary calcifications), moderate risk (101–300: moderate amounts of coronary calcifications), and high risk (>300: large amounts of coronary calcifications)21.
  2. aEvents are presented as a percentage within categorical risk group and with number of events and total number of subjects within the group in parentheses.
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