Table 1 The observed Lp(A)-MI association is magnified by temporal bias.

From: Temporal bias in case-control design: preventing reliable predictions of the future

Initial case state imputation method

Trajectory type

Effect size relative to reported baseline (95% CI)

Weighted sampling

Linear

0.172 (0.160–0.196)

Weighted sampling

Logistic

0.169 (0.150–0.187)

Weighted sampling

Logarithmic

0.403 (0.390–0.417)

Percentile matching

Linear

0.518 (0.507–0.528)

Percentile matching

Logistic

0.517 (0.506–0.527)

Percentile matching

Logarithmic

0.639 (0.631–0.647)

Percent shift

Linear

0.389 (0.376–0.401)

Percent shift

Logistic

0.386 (0.373–0.399)

Percent shift

Logarithmic

0.539 (0.530–0.549)

Weighted sampling

HSF: Impulse in first 10% of trajectory

0.808 (0.801–0.814)

Weighted sampling

HSF: Impulse in first 1% of trajectory

0.980 (0.977–0.984)

Weighted sampling

HSF: Impulse in first 0.1% of trajectory

0.998 (0.997–0.999)

Percentile matching

HSF: Impulse in first 10% of trajectory

0.898 (0.895–0.901)

Percentile matching

HSF: Impulse in first 1% of trajectory

0.989 (0.989–0.989)

Percentile matching

HSF: Impulse in first 0.1% of trajectory

0.999 (0.999–0.999)

Percent shift

HSF: Impulse in first 10% of trajectory

0.860 (0.857–0.864)

Percent shift

HSF: Impulse in first 1% of trajectory

0.987 (0.985–0.989)

Percent shift

HSF: Impulse in first 0.1% of trajectory

0.999 (0.999–0.999)

  1. Association effect sizes from 100 simulated prospective trials each relative to INTERHEART sizes. Effect sizes less than 1 represent smaller simulated effects compared to those from INTERHEART.
  2. HSF Heaviside step function.