Fig. 6: Impact of reduction of two types of contacts on the effective reproduction number in November 2020.
From: Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic
Percentage reduction in (a) other (non-school-related) contacts in society in general and (b) school contacts, with the number of the other type of contact kept constant in each of the two panels. The scenario with 0% reduction describes the situation in November 2020. The scenario with 100% reduction represents a scenario with either (a) maximum reduction in other (non-school-related) contacts in society in general to the level of April 2020 or (b) complete closure of schools. The solid black line describes the median and the shaded region represents the 95% credible intervals obtained from 2000 parameter samples from the posterior distribution. The red line is the starting value of Re (situation November 2020) and the green line is the value of Re achieved for 100% reduction in contacts. To control the pandemic, Re < 1 is necessary.
