Fig. 1: National and global poverty trends in reference scenarios with neither climate impacts nor climate policies.
From: Combining ambitious climate policies with efforts to eradicate poverty
a Projections for national poverty rates in an SSP2 scenario in 2030. For countries that are greyed out in the map, no data was available to calibrate the model for poverty outcomes. b Global poverty headcount in the different SSP reference scenarios. While SSP3 and SSP4 are very similar in the global trend, they differ in national and regional poverty projections. The solid/dashed/dotted lines indicate the central projection of our model for the respective SSP scenario. The shaded bands are the 68% prediction intervals; uncertainties are calculated from the regression model for the logit-transformed country-level poverty rates, and propagated to the global poverty headcount (see Section ‘Projecting poverty headcounts and uncertainties’ in Methods). Recent historical values73 are shown with black dots.
