Fig. 4: Model hindcast, using both CO₂ and temperature data, for precalibration and a %outbound threshold of 30% (shaded regions).

The gray-shaded regions show the data compilations for CO₂ (ref. ²⁶) and temperature¹². The lightest colored shaded regions denote the 95% probability range from the precalibrated ensemble, the medium shading denotes the 90% probability range, the darkest shading denotes the 50% probability range, and the solid-colored lines show the ensemble medians. To depict the marginal value of each data set, the dashed lines depict the 95% probability range from the precalibrated ensemble, when only temperature data is used (a) and when only CO₂ data is used (b).