Fig. 2: Allocation strategies and prevalence of active infections with enough vaccine for 20% coverage with a single dose.
a–c Optimal, pro-rata, and high-risk allocation strategies with 20% coverage. Optimal allocation strategy to minimize deaths (light and dark blue), high-risk (pink) and pro-rata (green) allocation strategies assuming enough vaccine to cover 20% of the population with a single dose (10% with two doses). Within each panel, the bars represent the percentage vaccinated in each vaccination group. d–f Prevalence of active infections. Prevalence of active infections (per 100,000) in the absence of vaccine (black), with the optimal allocation strategy to minimize deaths (blue), the high-risk strategy (pink) or the pro-rata strategy (green) with enough vaccine to cover 20% of the population with a single dose (10% with two doses). Shaded areas represent central 95% of 1000 simulations (uncertainty intervals, see SI for full details). Additional plots for the prevalence of non-ICU and ICU hospitalizations are shown in Supplementary Fig. 5. The columns correspond to assumptions that the single-dose efficacy (SDE) is low (left column, \({{\rm{VE}}}_{{{\rm{DIS}}}_{1}}\) = 18%), moderate (center column, \({{\rm{VE}}}_{{{\rm{DIS}}}_{1}}\) = 45%) or high (right column, \({{\rm{VE}}}_{{{\rm{DIS}}}_{1}}\) = 72%), corresponding 20%, 50%, or 80% of the full vaccine efficacy, VEDIS = 90% assumed following two doses of vaccine, respectively. Here, we assumed an effective reproductive number Reff = 1.1.
