Fig. 3: Comparison of monthly model predictions and the data for models including seasonality of climate, agriculture and both.

Total monthly YF reports and in-sample model predictions A, D for humans, B, E NHPs and C, F both classifications. The top row (A, B, C) depicts the overall monthly data and model predictions for each classification type. The black rectangles indicate the data. The bottom row (D, E, F) show the residuals. Results are shown for the best fit model including agricultural (but not climate) seasonality (model OHA), climate (but not agricultural) seasonality (model OHC) and both forms of seasonality (model OHAC). Within-sample predictions are shown. Red refers to the OHA model predictions, green the OHC and blue the OHAC.