Fig. 3: Epidemic trajectories from the stochastic model. | Nature Communications

Fig. 3: Epidemic trajectories from the stochastic model.

From: High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions

Fig. 3: Epidemic trajectories from the stochastic model.The alternative text for this image may have been generated using AI.

a Epidemic trajectories for the total number of infected cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic cases) the baseline model from 100 realisations with best estimate parameters. b Mean number of symptomatic cases by year group from 100 realisations. Undergraduate years 1, 2, 3 and 4, taught postgraduates (PGT) and research postgraduates (PGR) are shown. c Epidemic trajectories when COVID security (CS) measures reduce transmission by 50 and 25%. d Epidemic trajectories when face-to-face teaching (f2f) is limited to 15 and 5 persons. e Epidemic trajectories for reduced living circles to 20 and 14 persons. f Epidemic trajectories when reactive mass testing is implemented every week and every 2 days. Dotted vertical lines denote the end of the first term. g Ranking of interventions by mean number of symptomatic cases at the end of the first term from 100 realisations for increasing values of asymptomatic infectiousness, and therefore also increasing values of the reproduction number. The colours correspond to the colours of the epidemic trajectories above.

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